Comparison and thinking of the boom period of the

2022-08-20
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Machinery and equipment: comparison and Reflection on the boom cycle of construction machinery

the recent cycle industry is the focus of market attention. Considering that the domestic excavator market data is relatively open, we mainly focus on the excavator data, taking into account the pump truck data, compare and analyze the recent two boom cycles of construction machinery, and predict the future development trend of the construction machinery industry

1. We believe that the starting point of this round of construction machinery cycle is the landing of a large number of infrastructure projects that began in early 2016, as well as the improvement of real estate sales and construction. Although the the Belt and Road is promoting key enterprises in the industry to explore the international market, this is a gradual process. The upward cycle of construction machinery is mainly due to the recovery of domestic market demand

2. Considering that most of the demand for excavators in the previous round is new demand, which is dominated by increment, and the rapid decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment leads to the decline in incremental demand, while this round is dominated by renewal demand, which is more relevant to the total amount of fixed asset investment, and the release of renewal demand has better continuity, so we judge that the stability of this round of demand will be better than that of the previous round, and the probability will exceed the two-year cycle of the previous round, It is estimated that the rising fatigue testing machine, which will last for more than 3 years, also has such a cycle. At present, there is a great probability that the excavator industry will achieve positive growth next year

3. From the performance of Sany's share price, in the last boom cycle, the excavator industry entered a negative growth range from May 2011, and sany's share price reached a stage high on April 11, 2011. In this cycle of recovery, Sany's share price has risen from the lowest point in the first half of 16 years, and has increased by about 70% so far. However, referring to the share price trend of Sany in the last boom cycle, we believe that Sany's share price still has a large upward space

4. The adjustment range of concrete machinery is larger than that of excavator. The sales volume of pump truck industry increased from 203 Different suitable ranges: the horizontal tensile testing machine is applicable to the tensile testing of metal materials, steel cables, chains, lifting belts, etc., with 12000 units at the peak of 11 years, and only a few hundred units adjusted to 2016. From the first quarter of this year, concrete machinery with pump trucks as the core began to recover significantly. The sales of concrete machinery are expected to double this year. The growth of China's plastic machinery industry has ushered in a golden period of rapid growth. The sales of pump trucks are also expected to recover steadily in the next few years. Considering that the pump truck market has begun to recover, and sany's competitive advantage in the field of pump trucks is more obvious, pump trucks will become a new performance explosion point besides excavators in the future

5. From the perspective of the industry itself, the two cycles are also significantly different. First, the adjustment period before the start of this business cycle was longer, and the industrial capacity was cleared more fully. In 2016, the industry recovered, and the balance sheet began to improve significantly; Second, the current cycle demand is dominated by renewal demand, and downstream buyers' decisions are more rational and sustainable; Third, the industry concentration has increased, and the market share of domestic advantageous enterprises has increased significantly. If giant chooses to install the pressure sensor on the measuring oil circuit of the original display dial, the gap between the installation heads is also widening

investment suggestions: considering the huge inertia of the cyclical industry, the growth of the construction machinery industry in the fourth quarter of this year and next year may exceed expectations, as well as the improvement of industry concentration, leading enterprise advantages

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